Monday, April 11, 2016

Oh my word pundits are fools

One of the themes that is emerging in the last half of the delegate selection process on the Democratic side is the open versus closed state issue. The statement goes something like this ... "Bernie Sanders has done well with independents in open primaries but in New York there is a closed primary where only Democrats can vote and that will help Hillary Clinton". Except the premise is totally wrong because voters are a bit smarter than pundits give them credit for ...

New York State Dem Enrollment ... 5.2 Million
New York State Repub Enrollment ... 2.7 Million
New York State Indepen Enrollment ... 475 Thousand


Massachusetts Dem Enrollment ... 1.5 Million
Massachusetts Repub Enrollment ... 468 Thousand
Massachusetts Indepen Enrollment ... 2.27 Million (technically called Unenrolled in either)

See the difference? In New York where Independents can't vote in primaries almost nobody enrolls as an Independent. In Massachusetts where you can vote in either primary tons of folks register that way even if they have a leaning or commitment to one party or another.

Institutional structures matter. Apparently not to pundits however.

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